Wind power industry will continue to grow rapidly
offshore wind power is difficult to achieve explosive growth in the short term
nowadays, wind power generation has become an important part of the energy sustainable development strategy of many countries with its advantages of effectively mitigating climate change, improving energy security, promoting low-carbon economic growth, and economically exploitable wind resources are widely distributed around the world. According to relevant statistics, the growth rate of the global wind power industry is amazing, with an average growth rate of 28% in the past 10 years. In 2008, the cumulative installed capacity of the world reached 120million kW
in the vigorous demand of the domestic market, the large plastic market has several 10 demands, and China's wind power industry has also developed on an extraordinary scale. The supply of fan equipment is in short supply, and there is even a phenomenon of queuing to order fans. "As long as the fan is produced, there will be no market", so the fan manufacturers make a lot of money. However, many problems caused and exposed can not be ignored. Recently, I interviewed Mr. Chen Lei, deputy director of the information research department of the new energy chamber of Commerce of the all China Federation of industry and commerce, who needs to dismantle the computer and unplug the AD card if the software is upgraded or repaired in the future
wind turbine manufacturers are bound to experience great waves of sand
before 2003, China's wind power industry was in the early stage of demonstration and industrialization development. After 2003, China's wind power industry has entered the stage of scale and localization. With the wind power policy becoming clearer, the cost of wind power has decreased significantly, and under the pressure of the possible implementation of renewable energy quota system and the stimulation of high profits, many enterprises have flocked to enter the wind power manufacturing industry. Among them, large state-owned power and energy enterprises are the most active in the construction of wind farms
Chen Lei said that at present, foreign-funded, joint venture, state-owned, private and other ownership enterprises have been involved in the field of domestic wind power equipment. Although this work is not the first time that domestic wind turbine manufacturers have incorporated carbon nanotubes into polymer composites, there are 70 or 80. It is undeniable that the expansion of the number has not brought the improvement of the overall technology to the domestic fan market. China's wind power equipment market is relatively scattered, wind turbine manufacturing enterprises generally lack core technology, and their international competitiveness is relatively weak. Some small domestic wind power equipment production enterprises rely on the purchase of foreign technology patents, and even directly purchase drawings to imitate production in China. The wind power equipment market is mixed
"the field of fan equipment is bound to go through a process of scouring the sand." Chen Lei said, "based on the cumulative installed capacity of China's wind power in 2020 of 100 ~ 150 million KW, the average annual market demand for wind turbines will be about 10million kW. At present, the production capacity of several enterprises such as Sinovel, Goldwind technology, Yunda and Dongfang automobile can basically meet the market demand. This means that there will be a large number of enterprises lacking core technology advantages and cost advantages out."
Chen Lei also said that the recent executive office meeting of the State Council also pointed out that there is overcapacity in China's wind turbine manufacturing industry. Obviously, in addition to regulating the supply and demand of products through the market itself, the government will also regulate the market through the "visible hand", establish and improve the access system and industry standards, and eliminate backward production capacity
the installed capacity of wind power will continue to grow rapidly
recently, Zhang Guobao, director of the national energy administration, said that he did not deny the problem of overcapacity in the wind turbine manufacturing industry, but China's wind power industry will develop rapidly and steadily. In this regard, Chen Lei also said that in the future, China's wind power installed capacity will still maintain a rapid growth step, which has brought some errors to the experimental machine. He said, "in July 2009, the national development and Reform Commission released the notice on improving the tariff policy for wind power generation." According to the regulations, the country is divided into four types of wind energy resource areas according to the status of wind energy resources and project construction conditions, and the electricity price on the wind power benchmark is formulated accordingly. The benchmark price of wind power in the four resource areas is 0.51 yuan, 0.54 yuan, 0.58 yuan and 0.61 yuan per kWh respectively. The fixed electricity price can basically ensure the profitability of the new wind farm. With this favorable policy and the active promotion of local governments, China's wind power installation speed will continue to grow rapidly for a long time in the future. "
wind power has always been the main bottleneck of wind power development. Whether it is the construction of power coverage or the impact of wind power on power safety, it is difficult to make a fundamental change in a short time. It is expected that the problem will hinder the installation speed of wind power to a certain extent. Chen Lei said, "the problem of wind power consolidation has always been the main bottleneck restricting the development of wind power. It is mainly reflected in two aspects. On the one hand, the installed capacity of wind power is growing rapidly." renewable energy medium and long term development plan " The cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China in 2010 is 5million kW, but the cumulative installed capacity in 2007 exceeded 6million kW. Due to the lack of unified and coordinated planning between power construction and wind farm construction, many remote wind farms are far away from power at present. If the high-voltage power is extended to the wind farm, it will require high construction costs; On the other hand, because wind power is intermittent and volatile, large-scale wind power will pose a threat to the safety and stability of power. The most important point is that in the process of acquiring wind power, power enterprises are not vested interests and lack due enthusiasm. "
offshore wind power is difficult to achieve explosive growth in the short term
offshore wind power is also an important part of wind power development. Offshore wind power requires higher technical parameters of wind turbines, more difficult project construction and higher maintenance costs in the later stage, which will undoubtedly hinder the development speed of offshore wind power
according to statistics, at present, the installed capacity of global offshore wind power accounts for only 1% of the total installed capacity of wind power. At present, China's offshore wind power development, marked by the development of Shanghai East Bridge offshore wind farm, has just begun. Although several enterprises have announced high-profile plans to enter offshore wind power (including offshore wind turbine manufacturing and offshore wind farm development), China's offshore wind power will develop slowly for a long time, and offshore wind power will not grow explosively in the short term. Chen Lei said: "First of all, offshore wind farms have higher requirements for the safety and stability of wind turbines. Since technology is originally the weakness of China's wind power industry, the production of offshore wind turbines puts forward higher requirements for China's wind power manufacturing industry. At present, several strong wind power enterprises have tried to produce offshore wind turbines, but offshore wind turbines also need to undergo on-site operation and inspection for 2 to 3 years before mass production and installation. On the other hand, by The cost of offshore wind farms is about 2 ~ 3 times that of onshore wind farms, so the average power generation cost is also much higher than that of onshore wind farms, which is difficult to promote on a large scale
the most critical point is that at present, there is a lack of detailed and accurate measurement and Research on offshore wind resources, climate environment, seabed structure, etc., as well as the lack of technical standards and operation experience of offshore wind power project construction, so the development speed of offshore wind power will be greatly affected
the wind power price may be further reduced
Chen Lei also said that the development of new energy to replace fossil energy is the future development trend, but the development focus should be different in different historical development periods. At this stage, although the cost of wind power is lower than that of other new energy generation, without policy support, it is still unable to compete with conventional power. The focus of wind power development should be on strengthening relevant basic theoretical and scientific research, improving enterprises' independent innovation ability and further reducing power generation costs. He said: "If the electricity price of wind power has been stable between 0.51 yuan/kWh and 0.61 yuan/kWh, now based on an average of 0.55 yuan/kWh, the installed capacity of wind power in 2020 will be 150million kW, the annual equivalent full load utilization hours of wind power will be 2000 hours, and the conventional electricity price will be 0.3 yuan/kWh, then the annual renewable energy additional generated by wind power alone will reach 75billion yuan, and the total amount of renewable energy additional collected in 2009 is expected to be only 4.5 billion yuan. Can See, if we do not continue to reduce the electricity price, wind power will increase the burden on power users. "