The hottest wind power industry's high growth over

2022-08-13
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The high growth of the wind power industry over the years is mostly due to the bottleneck of the subsidy industry. The rapid growth of the wind power industry for five consecutive years has suddenly slowed down. Vicious price competition, the shadow of overcapacity, the increase of technical threshold and the withdrawal of subsidy policies seem to indicate that the bottleneck of the industry has quietly arrived

in the first half of this year, the performance of listed companies with main wind turbines, such as Sinovel wind power, Goldwind technology, Dongfeng Electric and Xiangdian, generally fell sharply

Sinovel wind power, the industry leader, released a semi annual report today, saying that the company achieved an operating revenue of 5.325 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 29.45%; The net profit was 659 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.30%

lower and lower prices are the general trend

in the first half of 2011, China's wind power industry is facing an important turning point. Goldwind technology said in its semi annual report that from the perspective of macroeconomic environment, the tightening of money has brought certain financial pressure to enterprises, and the rise in raw material prices has squeezed the profitability of wind power equipment manufacturers to a certain extent; From the perspective of industrial policies, the introduction of a series of industrial policies has not only tightened the approval power of new projects, suspended and approved, but also put forward more stringent requirements for merger technology and testing, and raised the technical threshold of the industry. These measures have brought certain pressure to the market to improve resilience and the company itself in the short term

in the first half of the year, Goldwind technology achieved an operating revenue of 5.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.61%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 425million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.05%

for the decline in performance, Tao Gang, senior vice president of Sinovel wind power, told China business yesterday that no industry can rely on government subsidies to maintain high profits for a long time. The same is true of the wind power industry. In the future, lower and lower prices are a major trend. The reason is that at this time, a large number of volatile MoO3 phases are generated, and the growth rate of the industry will return to rationality in the future

Dou Zeyun, an analyst at Ping An Securities, said that after several years of rapid development, there are nearly 100 domestic complete machine manufacturers, and the market competition is fierce. In the market environment of the lack of third-party independent testing institutions, the price war is still the main means of market competition. In 2011, the price of fans fell further, and the price of 1.5MW mainstream models has fallen below 3500 yuan

high growth depends largely on subsidies

encouraged by policies, the year-on-year growth rate of investment in domestic wind power project construction from 2006 to 2010 was 37.76%, 173.54%, 208.27%, 48.27% and 13.97% respectively. In 2010, China's new wind power installed capacity reached 18.9gw, and the cumulative wind power installed capacity reached 44.7gw by the end of 2010

the explosive growth of the industry soon led to overcapacity. Dou Zeyun said that in 2011, the total capacity of domestic machine manufacturers had reached 29gw, while the demand was 15-18gw, and the excess capacity was still difficult to absorb

due to the rapid growth of wind power installation and the unresolved technology, the wind turbines are seriously idle. Of the 18.9gw of new wind power installation in 2010, only 14gw are connected. In 2011, the utilization hours of wind power equipment were only 2097 hours, far lower than the average level of 4660 hours in the whole power generation equipment industry

the rapid growth in the past few years has largely benefited from policy subsidies. Take Goldwind technology as an example. In 2010, the company's special fund subsidy for wind power was 35.5 million yuan, accounting for 1.66% of the net profit. The special fund subsidy for wind power of Xiangdian Co., Ltd. also accounted for 1.6% of the net profit

in recent years, countries have gradually abolished subsidy policies for new energy. China has also cancelled the subsidy policy for wind power procurement since this year, and this policy trend is soon reflected in the profitability of the industry

the rise in rare earth prices hurt permanent magnet fans

the two technical routes of permanent magnet direct drive fans and double fed fans in the fan industry were originally equal, and even permanent magnet direct drive fans were considered to have more advantages in reliability, electrical compatibility and so on. However, with the soaring price of rare earth, the competitiveness of permanent magnet direct drive fans began to decline

Goldwind technology and Xiangdian are the main manufacturers of permanent magnet direct drive fans. In the first half of this year, the gross profit margin of Xiangdian's wind power system business fell by 6.1 percentage points to 8.03%. The main reasons include that the fierce competition in wind power made the price of wind turbines appear water pressure. The precautions for the test can be divided into five parts for inventory. One step decline, and the sharp rise in the price of neodymium iron boron, one of the main raw materials of direct drive fans, led to a rapid decline in gross profit margin

rare earth prices soared in the first half of this year. Permanent magnet direct drive fan uses permanent magnet neodymium iron boron material, and neodymium in neodymium iron boron material is rare earth element. Chen Hua, an analyst of CICC, said in the research report that a 1.5MW permanent magnet direct drive generator of Goldwind technology consumed about 1mt (metric tons) of permanent magnet materials. Affected by the rise in rare earth prices, the spot price of permanent magnet materials soared from about 100 yuan per kilogram to about 700 yuan. According to this calculation, the purchase of permanent magnet materials for a 1.5MW permanent magnet direct drive generator at the beginning of this year was only 100000 yuan, but at present, if it was completely based on the spot price, it would rise to 700000 yuan

since the double fed fan does not need rare earth, it is not affected by the price rise of rare earth adjusted according to the above method. Mu Yunzhou, an analyst at Aijian securities, believes that the output of permanent magnet direct drive fans is bound to decline in the second half of the year, which is good for the manufacturers of double fed units as a substitute, and a severe challenge for the manufacturers dominated by permanent magnet direct drive fans. It is expected that the sales growth rate of permanent magnet direct drive fans will decline by 50%

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