The hottest wind power experienced a two-year low

2022-08-21
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Wind power experienced a two-year low tide, and the wind abandonment rate fell to a record low of 8.7% in the first half of the year.

data show that from January to July this year, the installed capacity of new wind power increased by nearly 23% year-on-year; In the first half of this year, the national wind abandonment rate fell to 8.7%, down 5% year-on-year, hitting a new low in recent years. Related listed companies performed well, with a half year net profit of 1.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.05%. The performance changes of wind power industry deserve continuous attention

recently, new industrial forms have been derived. According to the latest data released by the national energy administration, from January to July this year, China's new installed capacity of wind power generation was 9.46 million KW. At present, social resources are tight, an increase of 2.16 million KW year-on-year, an increase of nearly 23% year-on-year; The average utilization hours of wind power equipment were 1292 hours, an increase of 174 hours year-on-year. In the first half of this year, the national wind abandonment rate fell to 8.7%, down 5% year-on-year, hitting a new low in recent years

insiders believe that the wind abandonment rate in 2018 will maintain the trend of improvement in 2017. In the medium and short term, the decline in the wind rejection rate will not only improve the profitability of the existing installed capacity, but also enhance the enthusiasm of the approved installation, cultivate and gather a batch of top talents and machines in the industry, so as to increase the scale of new installed capacity in the future; In the long run, the reduction of electricity prices and policy planning will further improve the wind power landscape and consolidate the annual average installed capacity center in the future

more analysts predict that in the future, with the improvement of wind abandonment rate and the improvement of market prosperity, the proportion of wind power, a clean energy, in China's total power generation will rise

after two years of low tide

the wind power industry is rising again

in fact, China's wind power projects started to extend the driving mileage earlier. However, by 2000, it was nearly 300000 kW. By 2010, the installed capacity of wind power had risen to 44million kW, and in 2012, it achieved overtaking in curves, surpassing the United States with an installed capacity of 60million kW, becoming the world's largest wind power country

after years of development, the average annual compound growth rate of China's wind power has reached 100%, which has attracted global attention. However, due to the popularity of the market and the rush to install, the installed scale of China's wind power climbed to the highest point in 2015 and began to decline, which has greatly affected the industry as a whole

affected by the changes in the market environment and the arrival of the abandonment trend, the once on-road wind power gradually turned to the offshore wind power in the southeast coastal area, but the development difficulty of offshore wind power was significantly greater than that on the road, which also led to a decline in installed capacity, and the costs of many enterprises began to rise, leading to a decline in profits

fortunately, after two years of decline in installed capacity, wind power has not been adjusted like the photovoltaic industry this year. At the press conference of the National Energy Administration held a few days ago, the relevant person in charge said that in the first half of 2018, China's energy consumption continued to pick up and the energy consumption structure continued to be optimized; The scale of renewable energy power generation continues to expand, the consumption situation of wind power has greatly improved, and the power abandonment and power abandonment rate have both decreased

this means that wind power has finally got rid of the declining trend of installed capacity in the past two years and truly reversed the situation. The industry pointed out that in the future development, there will be fewer and fewer red warning areas for wind power development, and the steady increase in installed capacity is an inevitable result. It should be noted that although the wind power installation has declined as much as possible in the past two years, China is still in the first position in the world. If the current momentum is maintained in 2018, it is expected to achieve "ten consecutive championships"

and this can be learned from the feedback of various companies. Goldwind technology said that with the national development and Reform Commission and the energy administration have successively issued a number of policies to ensure the priority of wind power and improve the consumption of wind power, the situation of wind power abandonment and power limitation has significantly improved in the first half of this year. According to the data of the national energy administration, the average utilization hours of wind power in the first half of the year was 1143 hours, an increase of 159 hours year-on-year. Among them, Yunnan and Liaoning have the highest utilization hours in China, reaching 1592 hours and 1335 hours respectively, far exceeding the national average. In the first half of the year, 18.2 billion kwh of wind power was discarded, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3 billion kwh. The national average wind abandonment rate was 8.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9 percentage points; Except for Guizhou and Inner Mongolia, the wind abandonment rate of other provinces and cities has decreased year-on-year. Among them, the wind abandonment rate of Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang and Gansu provinces has decreased by more than 10 percentage points

Tianshun wind energy said that in the first half of this year, the domestic wind power market demand showed an obvious warming trend, and the steel price remained high and volatile, but the price was relatively stable. At the same time, based on the positive pull effect of the change of RMB exchange rate on domestic export business, the overall external macro environment was conducive to wind power construction investment

Silver Star Energy said that in the first half of the year, the company actively responded to the impact of internal and external environmental changes, and achieved good results in production and operation, project construction, equipment management, maintenance market development, electricity marketing, etc. In the first half of this year, the company improved the condition of equipment and the profitability of wind power projects by strengthening the implementation of equipment governance and efficiency improvement projects of wind power technology. It is estimated that the utilization hours can be increased by 100 hours and the power generation capacity can be increased by 126 million kwh every year

decline in wind abandonment rate

help enterprises improve their performance

the above three companies all feel the changes in the market. In fact, the biggest change in the wind power market in 2018 is also due to the decline in wind abandonment rate and policy expenditure. "The decline in wind abandonment rate and the greatly improved utilization hours of wind power mean that the revenue of the wind power industry will be significantly increased. Affected by this, the performance of several major wind power operators in the first half of the year has been significantly improved." Some analysts said to securities

from the perspective of energy-saving wind power of another wind power enterprise, in the first half of this year, the company completed a total of 3 billion kwh, an increase of 727.48 million kwh over the same period last year, an increase of 31.91%. For the substantial increase in performance, the explanation given by energy-saving wind power is that in the first half of the year, the operation of new projects put into operation and the improvement of wind power curtailment in some regions where the company is located compared with the same period last year, resulting in the growth of power sales and power sales revenue

the growth of power generation has also significantly benefited relevant wind power enterprises. According to the announcement of SDIC power, the company generated 1.027 billion kwh of wind power in the first half of the year, an increase of 44.74% year-on-year. The main reasons for the overall year-on-year growth of wind power generation are as follows: first, the situation of wind power curtailment in the northwest region has improved, and the power generation has increased significantly year-on-year; Second, wind power projects in Dongchuan, Yandun, Jingxia and Qinghai have been put into operation and have begun to take effect

according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in July, due to the good wind conditions in the main wind power areas, the growth rate of wind power was 13.3 percentage points faster than that of the previous month, with a year-on-year increase of 24.7%

in March this year, the National Energy Administration issued the notice of the National Energy Administration on releasing the monitoring and early warning results of wind power investment in 2018, lifting the red warning of wind power in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and Ningxia. These three provinces are considered by the industry to be one of the main forces of the new installed capacity in the future

from the public data, from January to July this year, the number of wind power generation hours in Jilin, Gansu and Xinjiang, which are in the red warning zone, increased by 257 hours, 266 hours and 129 hours respectively year-on-year; Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang, which are in the orange warning zone, increased 154 hours and 175 hours year-on-year respectively

the researcher of Chuancai Securities said that factors such as the reduction of subsidies and the expectation of rush loading will affect the growth of new installed capacity in the future. It is expected that the industry boom will continue from downstream operators to midstream machine and parts manufacturers. The continuous improvement of the fundamentals of the wind power industry in 2018 may bring investment opportunities

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